thots on Egypt situation

It has been more than 20 years since we lived in Egypt, and then only for 14 months, but it strikes me that the current life in Egypt hasn't changed much -- except perhaps a new will to act.

In fact that's exactly what a CBC report suggests

In Egypt, discontent with life in the autocratic, police state has simmered under the surface for years. But there has also been growing discontent over economic woes, poverty, unemployment, corruption and police abuses.

The question is, what will emerge? If Mubarak is toppled [I still think that would be quite a leap], what forces will move into the empty space? He has effectively kept any kind of alternative democratic process/movement almost non-existent -- that is, there is no alternative organizational infrastructure.

I am afraid I support the interpretation expressed in this post: Uh Oh, White House Declines to Endorse Mubarak -- that the vacuum created by the popular uprising against the Shah of Iran [who had likewise squelched all democratic organizational infrastructure] was filled by the organizational infrastructure of the Ayatollah Khomeini. Repeat the scenario when strong-man Saddam Hussein was taken out -- no democratic infrastructure, filled by Shiite infrastructure. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is the long-established organizational infrastructure that is likely to prevail in a Mubarak-less world.

What continually peeves me on these scenarios is that anyone with any knowledge, at all, about this part of the world, could tell you this. But the US continues to support their anti-democratic strong-men and express shock when it all falls apart. ... oh yeah, but then they get to invade... so maybe they do know what they are doing... then they put in place their Westernized puppets from the social elite like Karzai, Allawi et al, [the touted person for Egypt is El-Baradei] and so it starts all over again.

Comments

[Ken Peters]

That's helpful Dan. What you describe simply feels intuitively right in light of past events elsewhere, and it's helpful to hear how you summed it up the way you did. And I agree that it seems a long shot to think that Mubarak will be ousted, and that even if he were, the alternatives don't look encouraging (from my standpoint anyway). But if he isn't, do you see any good coming from these events?

[Dan]

Hi Ken,
if he isn't ousted, will he see that 'the times they are a-changing?' Our South Africa experience gives a healthy example I think. The apartheid regime under DeKlerk finally recognized that the time had come, and took serious steps over a 3-4 year period to allow democratic infrastructure a chance to develop in public without threat, before the first election in '94. There needs to be space for a moderate, democratic movement to develop so that the MB has a counter-balance. my thots :)

[Brian Hartley]

Dan: I also appreciate your thoughts on these topics. What do you think this might mean for the Copts and for our Christian brothers and sisters in Egypt? My friend and colleague, Matt Zahniser, prays regularly for the church there.

[Dan]

Hi Brian,
well I think there are still a lot of unknowns; the Copts are bad-off enough in Mubarak's balanced secular state (like Saddam's balancing act with Assyrian Orthodox Xians -- all now trying to get out of Iraq's markedly Muslim environment), with the attempt at fairness for Christians -- a 'democratic' future will be a Muslim future. I'm with Matt, prayer for grace and shalom, a world put right :) Please pass my greetings to him!